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On 30 July, the Armenian and Turkish special envoys for normalising relations between the two countries met on their shared border. Though encouraging, however, the process appears to remain linked to normalising relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan
At the end of July, Ruben Rubinyan and Serdar Kilic, the Armenian and Turkish diplomats appointed in 2021 as special envoys to normalise relations between the two countries, met again. Despite previous attempts, most notably in 2009, hopes for success had been bolstered following the 44-day war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2020. The shared border was closed by Ankara in 1993 not because of conflict with Yerevan, but in solidarity with Baku after Armenian forces took Kelbajar, one of seven Azerbaijani districts surrounding the mainly Armenian-inhabited breakaway region of Nagorno Karabakh.
In 2020, however, along with other regions taken by or returned to Baku, that was no longer an issue. In September 2023, when over 100,000 ethnic Armenians fled to Armenia, Baku also regained full control over Karabakh.
But as was the case in 2009, Turkey again made normalisation contingent on progress in the fragile peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan. At the last meeting between Rubinyan and Kilic held in Vienna in July 2022, the sides agreed to open one of two unused crossing points between the countries for diplomatic passport holders and third-country citizens. Despite an investment of $2.6 million to establish border and customs control by the Armenian side at one of two unused border crossings, there has still been no similar activity on the Turkish side.
The meeting at the Alican-Margara crossing point, some 40 km west of Yerevan and the first to happen on the border, was nonetheless encouraging. Rubinyan and Kilic were also the first diplomats to symbolically cross the bridge together. An identically worded statement from the Armenian and Turkish foreign ministries, however, made no reference to when the partial border opening would officially occur. They only “re-emphasised their agreement to continue the normalisation process without any preconditions”, although they did commit to assessing the possible re-opening of the Akyaka-Akhurik railroad further north.
Many commentators in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey interpreted the announcement as further sign that even a partial opening of the border, intended to build confidence, will not happen until sufficient progress occurs between Baku and Yerevan. Though there have been some positive developments since December last year, when Armenia supported Azerbaijan’s bid to host this year’s UN Climate Change Conference in Baku, and also the return of four Azerbaijani villages taken in the early 1990s, Azerbaijan has since made a peace treaty contingent on Armenia removing a controversial preamble from the country's constitution. Moreover, restoring the railway crossing would be “in line with regional developments”.
Many took this to mean the unblocking of regional trade and transportation in general, including a controversial link between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan passing through Armenia that has long been integral for previous attempts to hammer out a deal between the sides. In the wake of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, this has been complicated by geopolitical considerations as the ceasefire statement ending the 2020 war stipulated that such a link would be overseen by the Border Guard Service of the Russian Federal Security Service. Since then, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has made it clear that he is opposed to such a development as he seeks to move Armenia out of Moscow’s orbit.
In June, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O’Brien visited Yerevan and also stressed the importance of the route, but without Moscow and Beijing's involvement – in essence, creating a new trade route through Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan to Central Asia bypassing Russia and China. But Ankara and Baku, unlike Yerevan, are unlikely to succumb to western pressure to irk Russia. Baku also views an open Armenia-Turkey border prior to an Armenia-Azerbaijan deal more likely to encourage Yerevan to hold out on one.
Nonetheless, some believe, an interim document between Baku and Yerevan on that could be signed, or more likely initialled, at the UN Climate Change Conference in the Azerbaijani capital later this year. On 21 July, Aliyev advisor Hikmet Hajiyev announced that an invitation had already been sent to Armenia’s Foreign Minister, Ararat Mirzoyan, encouraging speculation that this could be on the cards. Though there has still been no official reply from Yerevan, Pashinyan's office did say in response to a media enquiry that he would hold a press conference to address these issues upon returning from vacation later in August.
It is unclear what could be announced, but it will likely affect the pace of Armenia-Turkey normalisation too. Pashinyan had already taken a break from his holiday to visit the Alican-Margara crossing point just four days before Rubinyan and Kilic met, highlighting the importance Armenia places on opening the border. As usual, however, that still appears linked to any Armenia-Azerbaijan agreement.
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