Kosovo Elections: Kurti wins, uncertainties remain

The parliamentary elections in Kosovo outline an uncertain scenario: Kurti won but without a large majority. A coalition government now appears inevitable, with repercussions on political stability and dialogue with Serbia

On February 9, Kosovo held parliamentary elections in a democratic, free, and fair process. Voter turnout stood at 40.59% , down from 48.78% in the 2021 elections. A drop that reflects shifts in Kosovo’s political landscape over the past four years, influenced by both domestic skepticism and external geopolitical factors.

The election results reaffirmed the dominance of Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s Self-Determination Party (Lëvizja Vetëvendosje, VV), which secured 40.83% of the votes. Despite remaining the largest share, this however represents a significant drop from the 50.28% that allowed Kurti to govern with a secure majority in 2021.

The mainstream opposition parties in Kosovo, the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) and the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK), followed with 22.15% and 17.59% respectively. These results make a coalition government inevitable.

The decline in voter turnout can be traced back to the extraordinary political context of the 2021 snap elections, which were held in the aftermath of what some critics have described as a “U.S.-influenced coup ” that impacted on voter turnout. On 25 March 2020, amid the Covid-19 pandemic, Kosovo’s democratically elected government, led by Albin Kurti, was overthrown less than two months after taking office through a motion of no confidence initiated by its junior coalition partner, LDK.

The motion was supported by the Trump administration, with Special U.S. Envoy for Serbia and Kosovo Richard Grenell pressuring the LDK to withdraw its support for the government. As U.S. President Donald Trump was running for re-election back then, he sought to leverage diplomatic affairs overseas as achievements of his administration.

In this context, he pushed for a fast “peace deal” between Kosovo and Serbia, despite the fact that the countries were not at war with each other. Albin Kurti strongly opposed this maneuver, which ultimately cost him his power.

However, in 2021, this influenced voter turnout, boosting support for Albin Kurti and securing him 50.28% of the vote — enough to govern with a majority. Yet, in Sunday’s elections, support dropped to 40.83%, falling short of the threshold needed to govern alone .

In the current political context, the decline in voter turnout can be attributed to Kosovo remaining under EU sanctions , domestic critics accusing the government for failing to fulfill its promises, and opposition parties being unable to offer an alternative to Kurti.

The opposition’s fractured struggle with corruption and credibility

Despite Kurti’s declining support in these elections, Kosovo’s mainstream opposition remains fractured, weakened by corruption scandals and a perception that they are susceptible to international influence. The PDK, LDK, and the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK) - which secured only 7.47% of the votes, have failed to position themselves as viable alternatives.

Corruption has played a significant role in eroding the opposition's credibility, particularly in relation to sensitive issues such as the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue and the country's sovereignty.. Among Kosovo’s society there is a prevailing perception that international actors hold greater influence over PDK and LDK leaders than over Kurti.

This is seen as a threat to Kosovo’s security and well-being, considering that, at the dialogue table, representatives from these parties are believed to be more willing to make compromises at Kosovo’s expense.

This perception has been further amplified in the context of shifting international dynamics, particularly during Donald Trump’s presidency. Such a moral deficit has undermined the credibility of the traditional opposition, consequently weakening it, which has created a gap that other opposition parties have proven incapable of filling.

The coalition dilemma and future political scenarios

With no single party securing a firm majority, Kosovo now faces several possible coalition scenarios. The most likely option is for VV to form a coalition with Kosovo’s non-Serb minority parties, such as those representing the Bosniak, Turkish, and Roma communities.

This would allow Kurti to form a government while avoiding alliances with the traditional opposition parties like PDK or LDK. However, while this option is the most ideologically consistent for VV, it may not provide Kurti the necessary seats for a strong majority, making governance challenging in terms of passing key legislation and maintaining long-term stability.

A second option would include an opposition-led coalition against Albin Kurti and VV. In order to prevent Kurti from forming the government, PDK, LDK, and AAK could unite and attempt to acquire external support from the current Trump administration, which has expressed clear disapproval of Kurti. Richard Grenell, now serving as Special Presidential Envoy for Special Missions in Trump’s second administration, once again sought to influence Kosovo’s elections this year, openly opposing VV and Kurti’s leadership.

However, the long-standing rivalry between PDK and LDK may pose a significant obstacle to this coalition. If their dislike of Kurti will unite them, and make them overcome their differences, remains to be seen. Nevertheless, a government formed only with the purpose to oppose Kurti would face legitimacy issues and would not be able to maintain stability.

A third, though less likely scenario - given VV’s strong ideological stance - would be a coalition between VV, PDK, and LDK. While this might serve as a pragmatic short-term solution, it would probably lack long-term stability, potentially leading to snap elections as early as next year.

A step forward for democratic values in a fragile region

Kosovo’s 2024 elections reaffirm the country’s commitment to democratic processes, setting an example for a region marked by corruption and rigged electoral processes. However, the lack of a strong opposition undermines the effectiveness of Kosovo’s democracy: while elections are free and fair, genuine political competition is lacking.

The upcoming weeks will be crucial in determining what the new government in Kosovo will look like and who will be responsible for leading the Kosovo-Serbia talks. What is clear is that Kosovo, despite its internal challenges, has set another example for the region by holding peaceful, democratic elections — a standard still out of reach in neighbouring countries like Albania and Serbia.