After elections, Georgia on the brink

A complex geopolitical web has entangled Georgia in another wave of protests. Following controversial elections held in October, thousands have taken to the streets in response to what many see as the government turning away from the European Union and moving closer to Russia

Tbilisi erupted into violence last week when opposition supporters and police clashed on the streets. The showdown had long been predicted prior to parliamentary elections held on October 26 that saw the ruling Georgian Dream secure an unprecedented fourth term in office.

The European Union has expressed concern with the conduct of the election but has not yet disputed its outcome, waiting instead for the final report by international election observers from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE) Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR). The European Parliament, however, has already passed a non-binding resolution condemning the vote.

Further, it has called for new elections to be held under its own supervision and for member states not to recognise the legitimacy of the government. In response, Tbilisi stated that it would suspend EU accession talks until 2028, though they had already been frozen by Brussels, and that they would also not accept any EU grants, something the EU had already suspended following controversial legislation.

For many in the EU, the Georgian government has not done enough to actively support Ukraine in its war with Russia. As is the case with its neighbours, especially Armenia, sanctioned goods have been supplied to Moscow via the country. The Georgian opposition also alleges that the government is returning to Russia's sphere of influence. Regardless, it remains unclear whether October’s vote was falsified.

In an International Crisis Group (ICG) podcast, a journalist covering the region said that, while the government's share of votes appeared inflated, this was insufficient to alter the outcome. Another also noted that opposition figures seemed more eager to travel abroad to lobby foreign officials abroad rather than campaign among the electorate, especially in the regions. Meanwhile, the government launched a billboard campaign comparing Georgia with war-torn Ukraine.

Some believe that the government's message resonated with voters, others maintain that the outcome was falsified. But if the elections themselves did not immediately incite a riot the day after the vote, last week's European Parliament’s resolution and the government’s response did.

Georgians overwhelmingly support EU membership, and thousands finally took to the streets in a spontaneous show of defiance. But if opposition supporters had lacked energy and purpose in October, the mood became more confrontational on Friday. There are even claims that the Georgian Ultras, an aggressive far-right group, has joined.

Escalation was certainly the case on Friday, when the demonstrations were dispersed by police with tear gas and water cannon. The number of those on the streets doubled after the beating and arrest of some protesters. Several Georgian ambassadors resigned from their positions, public workers signed letters condemning the country’s suspension of talks over EU membership and private companies publicly signalled their concerns.

OSCE-ODIHR has called on the police to respond to “protesters acting violently without resorting to disproportionate and indiscriminate force”. Though most were peaceful, footage showed one demonstrator firing a makeshift rocket propelled grenade launcher possibly using fireworks for ammunition directly at police even when they were static. Others simply threw pyrotechnics along with rocks.

The United States have suspended its 15-year-old strategic partnership with the country, further emboldening the opposition. The Paris-born president, Salome Zourabichvili, has called the government “illegitimate” and considers herself to be the only legitimate official in the country. She has been engaging with European officials for years.

Ironically, a former Foreign Minister under former President Mikheil Saakashvili, Zourabichvili had been labelled as pro-government by the opposition when she controversially took on the now largely symbolic position in 2018. Now she is one of its most outspoken critics. The opening of the new parliament without her involvement is unconstitutional, she says, and refuses to step down when her term in office ends later this month.

Zourabichvili claims that her actions, alongside four other opposition parties, and the protests currently being held in the city are separate, but many suspect that there is at least coordination. Several pro-opposition party leaders and pro-opposition civil society leaders are usually interviewed against the backdrop of protesters bracing for the next police dispersal. Moreover, those taking to the streets frequently call for “revolution” on social media. In their minds, this is Ukraine’s Euromaidan. There is certainly a political and constitutional crisis in the deeply polarised country.

It remains to be seen who will emerge victorious, though protests are spreading throughout the country, but the future looks uncertain. Sandwiched between Russia, Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan, Georgia struggles in a troubled neighbourhood. "We move towards Europe, and Russia threatens us with bombing”, one Georgian told Sky News . "We move towards Russia and Europe threatens us with 'we won't feed you, we won't help you.’ […] Whoever can help us, they should. But nobody cares”.

Even if those protesters on the streets were to change their government, they will still be unable to change their neighbours.

Visit the photo gallery of the protests in Tbilisi