Yerevan and Baku at a crossroads as Russia flexes its muscles

Though there had been hopes that some kind of agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan could be initialled or signed by November this year, the situation looks increasingly uncertain as Russia once again enters the fray

Four years after the start of the 44-day-war between Armenia and Azerbaijan and a year since the exodus of 100,000 ethnic Armenians from the separatist Nagorno Karabakh region, hopes that there could be another opportunity to resolve the conflict are fading.

Though Yerevan, supported by France and the United States, believe that one is possible before November, Baku maintains that no final agreement can be signed until what it considers to be territorial claims, albeit referenced indirectly, in the Armenian constitution are removed. Yerevan disputes this and instead alleges that it is Azerbaijan that makes such claims on its territory.

Regardless, this also makes November a pivotal month to finally hammer out a deal or at least make significant progress on one. On 5 November, the United States will hold presidential elections that could either lead to continuity or change in its policy towards the region.

The next European Political Community (EPC) summit will also be held on 7 November in Hungary, before Baku hosts this year’s United Nations Climate Change Conference COP 29 on 11 November. Though Armenia has been invited to attend, it has not yet made a decision.

In a rare joint statement by Yerevan and Baku in December, however, Armenia did effectively support Azerbaijan’s bid to host the event. Earlier this year, a landmark agreement on the return of non-enclave villages under the control of Armenia since the early 1990s followed, as did the start of border delimitation and demarcation on that part of their shared border. The two sides signed the regulations for future border demarcation on 30 August, though they will need to be approved by the constitutional court and ratified by parliament before entering into force.

Nonetheless, other obstacles remain. Both sides have confirmed that 13 of 17 articles in an agreement on normalising relations have been agreed upon. Of the remaining four, three have been partially agreed upon, while one remains a major bone of contention.

At the end of August, Armenia removed all four points and returned the amended document to Baku saying that it was ready to sign the shared points immediately. Azerbaijan criticised the move and reiterated that nothing final could be signed until all articles were agreed upon.

Instead, Baku says it could be ready to initial those points as an interim document while negotiations over the remaining four continue.

Certainly, unless Azerbaijan withdraws its insistence on changing the Armenian constitution, it seems unlikely that a peace agreement can be signed before 2027 when Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan plans to change it by referendum anyway. Last year he had recognised the problem with the constitutional preamble and he continues to reiterate that Armenia no longer has territorial claims on Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, however, does not appear to trust his word or the position of the future Armenian government.

The Armenian opposition and many domestic commentators maintain that Pashinyan desperately needs a peace agreement if he is to comfortably contest the next parliamentary elections due to be held by mid-June 2026.

Having staked his post-war premiership on the success of his much-touted peace agenda, it would be seen as a failure if nothing were to come from it. His detractors already accuse him of making unilateral concession to Baku. Speaking at a conference in Yerevan last week, Pashinyan reaffirmed that position.

“There is only one guarantee of security – peace”, he told the audience.

Nonetheless, there has been a certain sense of anxiety noticeable among even his allies in civil society and sympathetic observers abroad, especially following a visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to Baku on 19 August.

As his government continues to signal a pivot towards the U.S. and European Union, Russia could be turning its attention, previously distracted by Ukraine, back to the region. Yerevan remains reliant on Moscow for its energy and economy in particular. Earlier this month, Pashinyan accepted an invitation from Russian President Vladimir Putin to attend the next meeting of BRICS in Kazan in October.

BRICS, a geopolitical bloc founded by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa in 2009, has since expanded to include others such as Iran and is increasingly considered a potential rival to the G7.

At the beginning of this month, Turkey applied to join the bloc, and the presence of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev at both the BRICS and CIS summits is leading some to worry that Russia might also attempt to influence Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations. Pashinyan will also attend next month's Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Leaders Summit in Russia.

With geopolitical rivalry increasing in the South Caucasus at an unprecedented rate, especially over the unblocking of regional transportation , whether any document can be initialled or signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan remains unknown.

What is clear, however, is that the coming weeks before November could demonstrate whether a peace agreement comes before Armenia enters its next election cycle starting next year.

Yerevan certainly seems restless in case Moscow attempts to interfere. On 18 September, Yerevan announced that it had prevented an attempted armed coup by Armenian citizens and former Karabakh residents allegedly trained in Russia. On 20 September, Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Maria Zakharova reminded Yerevan of how it benefits as a member of the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union.

“90 percent of grain that goes to Armenia […] comes from Russia. Perhaps then you can contact the Russian Federation […] to discuss your food security”, she stated. And with Armenia also reliant on Russia for its energy, former U.S. Ambassador to the OSCE Daniel Baer and Senior Vice President at the Carnegie Endowment voiced an ominous note at a recent congressional hearing. “Armenians must be prepared to endure some cold winters”, he said.