Georgia’s Dark New Year

Protests in Georgia, which erupted after the October elections and the decision to suspend negotiations with the EU, are not abating. Georgia is deeply divided on two fronts. Another critical moment is expected on Saturday: the election of the new president

Protests in Georgia continue, though for a brief moment it seemed that they might be winding down. The size of the demonstrations remains debatable, but some nights have now been very quiet, especially after almost nightly police dispersals. The government claims that this is because the organisers of attacks on police with fireworks and stones have since been arrested. However, it is also possible that the anger ignited by Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze’s announcement suspending of talks with the European Union until 2028 has started to dissipate.

By Saturday, however, things seemed calm again. Streets were quieter, as if people were taking a step back in the face of overwhelming odds, and metro trains largely devoid of apparent protestors as they headed for the Liberty Square station close to the evening gatherings. There were some, however. One young woman, dressed casually, sat quietly before disembarking. As she did so, she took out a large Georgian flag to wrap around her shoulders and drape down her back.

Another, a young man engrossed in his phone for the entire journey, sat with a motorcycle helmet attached to his jacket. Most likely this was for protection in case violence broke out again at the demonstration. Otherwise, most passengers remained aboard for the journey onwards. As many exited the station turning right away from the protest while others turned left towards it.

But it would be incorrect to say the protests are small. They at least match the 19,000 that turned out for the first post-election protest held on 28 October. Some nights numbers might even have doubled. The opposition says they number in their hundreds of thousands, however. Government media claims they amount to just a few thousand. The information war by both sides is in full swing with few independent journalists on the ground to provide objective information.

The number of flags are few among the crowd too. There’s a Georgian flag or two flown and also those of the United States, European Union, and Ukraine. Another, however, stands out from time to time – the flag of the short-lived first Georgian republic in 1918 that was readopted when the former Soviet Union collapsed but lasted only until the 2003 Rose Revolution.

Holding it were two teenage Georgian punks. They didn’t like the current flag adopted by then President Mikheil Saakashvili in 2004 – the now ubiquitous red cross on a white background with four smaller red crosses in the corners. The old flag, they explained, has more relevance today.

Though other accounts say the wine-red bulk of the flag represents good times, these young rebels had their own variation. It represented the blood of Georgians spilled under the yoke of others. The smaller black rectangle symbolised the darkness of Soviet rule, they said, and the white below it symbolised a brighter future. Like everyone else present, they were there to fight for freedom and a European future.

Not everyone wants to talk, in part because they are concerned about being identified by the police and detained after the rally, but most do. Some also wear masks to avoid being among a large number rounded up to date, with some manhandled or even beaten. The government says it wants to prohibit masks from being worn just as some U.S. States do in the wake of pro-Palestine demonstrations.

Since Sunday, Tbilisi’s traditional holiday season tree has already been erected by the municipality in front of the parliament too. At first, only foliage had been applied to the top half of the metal structure that forms the shape of the tree. Later that same day, protestors had affixed the photos of people injured or beaten since the protests started at the end of October. By Monday, the lower half had been completed and the photographs removed by municipal workers.

The whole of Rustaveli Avenue, the main street where the protests are held, will also have to be decorated for the holidays leading to more questions as to how long the protests will continue. The protestors, however, maintain it will only stop once new elections are called. They believe that the opposition is the rightful victor in the October vote.

But first, a new flashpoint will be on Saturday when a new president is elected to replace the current head of state, now the de facto leader of both the protests and a grouping of opposition parties with significant support from Georgia’s NGO sector. Her replacement is likely to be a former football player with little to no political experience. The opposition claims that the government will introduce a state of emergency that very same day.

There is no evidence for this other than a feeling that the government would prefer to end the protests before the New Year. But even then, flashpoints remain in what had been predicted to be an existential post-election clash by both sides. Now, it most certainly is.