Macedonia caught the fever again. Merely six months after the early national vote of June 2008, the country braces itself again for elections. The presidential and local vote will both be held on 22 March. For the past weeks, the country's biggest political issue concerns the possible candidates for future head of state
Macedonia caught the fever again. Merely six months after the early national vote of June 2008, the country braces itself again for elections. The presidential and local vote will both be held on 22 March. Discussions on the presidential elections overshadow debate on the local vote. For the past weeks, the country's biggest political issue concerns the possible candidates for future head of state.
Political drama, twists and turns, and some Byzantine political manoeuvring, finally produced the names of presidential candidates. Parties stalled and there was no lack of surprises.
The frontrunners include the law professor Gjorgi Ivanov, as the candidate for ruling VMRO; and another law professor Ljubomir Frckoski, who has served as foreign and interior minister, as the candidate for the opposition social democrats (SDSM); and Ljube Boskovski, former interior minister and a recently acquitted detainee at The Hague (the prosecutor's appeal is pending) as an independent candidate.
One of these three candidates will be most likely Macedonia's next president. The strongest chances lie with Gjorgi Ivanov, supported by the ruling VMRO; the party that bulldozed its opponents in last summer's elections.
Other candidates include Imer Selmani, former minister of health, and leader of New Democracy, the most recently created Albanian party that split from the DPA party of Menduh Taci; Nano Ruzin, former ambassador to NATO as candidate of the liberal democrats (LDP); Sladjana Taseva, former NGO activist; Blagoja Markovski, candidate of a lesser known party called PODEM; and Nevzat Halili of a smaller Albanian party - PDP.
The two major Albanian parties, DUI of Ali Ahmeti, and DPA of Taci, waited until the very last moment to decide whether they would enter their own candidates in the race. On the evening of 27 January, they simultaneously decided to nominate candidates. The DUI party will be represented by former minister of transport Agron Buxhaku, and the DPA party with Murishe Hodza. Both Hodza from DPA and Taseva as an independent candidate are Macedonia's first women candidates for president.
All candidates, except VMRO nominee Ivanov, must collect 10,000 signatures to support their bids for office. The VMRO is the only party that can currently secure more than 30 MP signatures required by law to automatically nominate a candidate. However, the VMRO hinted they might collect 10,000 signatures, probably to show they keep the playing field level. The deadline for collecting the signatures is early February. Ljube Boskovski and Imer Selmani, who announced their nominations earlier in the process, have already collected the necessary signatures. Selmani collected the necessary signatures within four days.
The biggest loser in the "who to nominate" game was Srdjan Kerim, a former foreign minister, diplomat and until recently president of the UN Assembly. All polls of potential presidential nominees consistently featured Kerim as one of the strongest candidates. His lack of membership in a political party creates a problem. Kerim's name was considered for months and the press speculated that some of the major Macedonian parties, either VMRO or SDSM, could take him as their candidate. Kerim himself also hinted he would be interested should a party stand behind him.
His chance was eventually ruined when, in a mysterious move in the middle of January, the SDSM party asked the VMRO party to jointly support Kerim as their candidate. VMRO flatly declined the offer. The SDSM party did not even consult Kerim before making the proposition. Perhaps the move was designed to remove Kerim as a candidate, which it effectively did. Kerim was somewhat bitter; he asked for explanations from SDSM, talked to VMRO leader and current prime minister, Nikola Gruevski, and eventually announced his withdrawal. The VMRO and SDSM parties are archenemies and their talk with each other descends frequently into insults.
Some reported that Kerim is too strong a personality and that Prime Minister Gruevski would see him as a competitor if he supported him. Perhaps the SDSM party did not want him; otherwise they could have directly offered him their nomination. Kerim's individual ratings would also have boosted SDSM's support levels, lowest in the party's existence.
The other candidate who wanted VMRO's support was Ljube Boskovski, commonly referred to as "Brother" (brat) Ljube, a title he enjoys. Ever since he was acquitted by The Hague last summer, "Brother" Ljube has been working to return to politics. He has been and still is a member of the VMRO party; only he does not have the support of its current leader Gruevski. In the past, he was brought in by VMRO's former president, Ljubco Georgievski (who after years of anonymity also wants back in politics and announced his candidacy for mayor of Skopje, as candidate of the VMRO Narodna party which split from VMRO).
"Brother" Ljube pushed hard in all possible ways to secure VMRO's nomination; however, in the end, he did not succeed and announced he would run as independent.
Prime Minister Gruevski brought in Professor Ivanov, at least in part in order to counter the efforts of "Brother" Ljube. Ivanov was the second big surprise in the race, after SDSM's ploy with Kerim. Until his nomination, he was not even considered a possible candidate. His name was not in the polls. He might be close to VMRO ideologically, but he is neither a member nor an active supporter of the party.
VMRO's potential problem is that "Brother" Ljube is the hero of Macedonian nationalists, the party's traditional voters. These voters could easily choose not to obey the call by the party leader Gruevski to vote for VMRO's candidate, and instead vote for independent "Brother" Ljube. This could reduce the strength of the VMRO vote and open space for many combinations in a possible second round, where much depends on who receives the Albanian vote.
At this election, the Albanian vote will be difficult to predict. Selmani of New Democracy had good ratings in the polls. At first, DUI and DPA did not seem interested in having their own candidates, and looked for a deal with their Macedonian counterparts - to support a VMRO or SDSM candidate in exchange for something else, such as support in the local vote. However, they also probably realized that with a popular Albanian in the race, their constituencies would not be easily convinced to vote for a Macedonian nominee.
Finally, the last surprise in the game was the SDSM candidate nomination. The social democrats, currently suffering their worst crisis, chose Ljubomir Frckoski, former minister and currently an extravagant academic and controversial columnist. Only a few weeks ago, Frckoski, a strong critic of the prime minister, received a court-order to pay Gruevski over 30,000 Euros of damages for slander. In a column last year, Frckoski, according to the court, falsely accused the prime minister of participating in a scandalous sale of the country's oil refinery. Although a prominent opinion-maker, Frckoski has a polarizing personality. It is unclear whether he would help or hinder SDSM's prospects.
The candidates of the two major Macedonian parties, VMRO and SDSM, are law faculty colleagues and have co-authored a textbook; however, they cannot stand each other. Insults are already flying, primarily from Frckoski's direction.
Some EU functionaries clearly told Macedonian politicians that a sham similar to the 2008 elections will not be tolerated. This admonishment should be repeated until March. In the blood-boiling excitement, Macedonia politicians get carried away. A month before the actual start of the campaign, they already cannot think of anything else.Macedonia caught the fever again. Merely six months after the early national vote of June 2008, the country braces itself again for elections. The presidential and local vote will both be held on 22 March. Discussions on the presidential elections overshadow debate on the local vote. For the past weeks, the country's biggest political issue concerns the possible candidates for future head of state.
Political drama, twists and turns, and some Byzantine political manoeuvring, finally produced the names of presidential candidates. Parties stalled and there was no lack of surprises.
The frontrunners include the law professor Gjorgi Ivanov, as the candidate for ruling VMRO; and another law professor Ljubomir Frckoski, who has served as foreign and interior minister, as the candidate for the opposition social democrats (SDSM); and Ljube Boskovski, former interior minister and a recently acquitted detainee at The Hague (the prosecutor's appeal is pending) as an independent candidate.
One of these three candidates will be most likely Macedonia's next president. The strongest chances lie with Gjorgi Ivanov, supported by the ruling VMRO; the party that bulldozed its opponents in last summer's elections.
Other candidates include Imer Selmani, former minister of health, and leader of New Democracy, the most recently created Albanian party that split from the DPA party of Menduh Taci; Nano Ruzin, former ambassador to NATO as candidate of the liberal democrats (LDP); Sladjana Taseva, former NGO activist; Blagoja Markovski, candidate of a lesser known party called PODEM; and Nevzat Halili of a smaller Albanian party - PDP.
The two major Albanian parties, DUI of Ali Ahmeti, and DPA of Taci, waited until the very last moment to decide whether they would enter their own candidates in the race. On the evening of 27 January, they simultaneously decided to nominate candidates. The DUI party will be represented by former minister of transport Agron Buxhaku, and the DPA party with Murishe Hodza. Both Hodza from DPA and Taseva as an independent candidate are Macedonia's first women candidates for president.
All candidates, except VMRO nominee Ivanov, must collect 10,000 signatures to support their bids for office. The VMRO is the only party that can currently secure more than 30 MP signatures required by law to automatically nominate a candidate. However, the VMRO hinted they might collect 10,000 signatures, probably to show they keep the playing field level. The deadline for collecting the signatures is early February. Ljube Boskovski and Imer Selmani, who announced their nominations earlier in the process, have already collected the necessary signatures. Selmani collected the necessary signatures within four days.
The biggest loser in the "who to nominate" game was Srdjan Kerim, a former foreign minister, diplomat and until recently president of the UN Assembly. All polls of potential presidential nominees consistently featured Kerim as one of the strongest candidates. His lack of membership in a political party creates a problem. Kerim's name was considered for months and the press speculated that some of the major Macedonian parties, either VMRO or SDSM, could take him as their candidate. Kerim himself also hinted he would be interested should a party stand behind him.
His chance was eventually ruined when, in a mysterious move in the middle of January, the SDSM party asked the VMRO party to jointly support Kerim as their candidate. VMRO flatly declined the offer. The SDSM party did not even consult Kerim before making the proposition. Perhaps the move was designed to remove Kerim as a candidate, which it effectively did. Kerim was somewhat bitter; he asked for explanations from SDSM, talked to VMRO leader and current prime minister, Nikola Gruevski, and eventually announced his withdrawal. The VMRO and SDSM parties are archenemies and their talk with each other descends frequently into insults.
Some reported that Kerim is too strong a personality and that Prime Minister Gruevski would see him as a competitor if he supported him. Perhaps the SDSM party did not want him; otherwise they could have directly offered him their nomination. Kerim's individual ratings would also have boosted SDSM's support levels, lowest in the party's existence.
The other candidate who wanted VMRO's support was Ljube Boskovski, commonly referred to as "Brother" (brat) Ljube, a title he enjoys. Ever since he was acquitted by The Hague last summer, "Brother" Ljube has been working to return to politics. He has been and still is a member of the VMRO party; only he does not have the support of its current leader Gruevski. In the past, he was brought in by VMRO's former president, Ljubco Georgievski (who after years of anonymity also wants back in politics and announced his candidacy for mayor of Skopje, as candidate of the VMRO Narodna party which split from VMRO).
"Brother" Ljube pushed hard in all possible ways to secure VMRO's nomination; however, in the end, he did not succeed and announced he would run as independent.
Prime Minister Gruevski brought in Professor Ivanov, at least in part in order to counter the efforts of "Brother" Ljube. Ivanov was the second big surprise in the race, after SDSM's ploy with Kerim. Until his nomination, he was not even considered a possible candidate. His name was not in the polls. He might be close to VMRO ideologically, but he is neither a member nor an active supporter of the party.
VMRO's potential problem is that "Brother" Ljube is the hero of Macedonian nationalists, the party's traditional voters. These voters could easily choose not to obey the call by the party leader Gruevski to vote for VMRO's candidate, and instead vote for independent "Brother" Ljube. This could reduce the strength of the VMRO vote and open space for many combinations in a possible second round, where much depends on who receives the Albanian vote.
At this election, the Albanian vote will be difficult to predict. Selmani of New Democracy had good ratings in the polls. At first, DUI and DPA did not seem interested in having their own candidates, and looked for a deal with their Macedonian counterparts - to support a VMRO or SDSM candidate in exchange for something else, such as support in the local vote. However, they also probably realized that with a popular Albanian in the race, their constituencies would not be easily convinced to vote for a Macedonian nominee.
Finally, the last surprise in the game was the SDSM candidate nomination. The social democrats, currently suffering their worst crisis, chose Ljubomir Frckoski, former minister and currently an extravagant academic and controversial columnist. Only a few weeks ago, Frckoski, a strong critic of the prime minister, received a court-order to pay Gruevski over 30,000 Euros of damages for slander. In a column last year, Frckoski, according to the court, falsely accused the prime minister of participating in a scandalous sale of the country's oil refinery. Although a prominent opinion-maker, Frckoski has a polarizing personality. It is unclear whether he would help or hinder SDSM's prospects.
The candidates of the two major Macedonian parties, VMRO and SDSM, are law faculty colleagues and have co-authored a textbook; however, they cannot stand each other. Insults are already flying, primarily from Frckoski's direction.
Some EU functionaries clearly told Macedonian politicians that a sham similar to the 2008 elections will not be tolerated. This admonishment should be repeated until March. In the blood-boiling excitement, Macedonia politicians get carried away. A month before the actual start of the campaign, they already cannot think of anything else.
