The two sculptures of an olive branch © Armenian Public Radio
A trilateral meeting between the leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia was held in Sochi on 26 November. Few details emerged from the meeting. For some it was a non-event, for others a step forward in diplomacy
Though initially intended to be held in an online format on 9 November, the eventual meeting of the Armenian, Azerbaijani, and Russian leaders instead took place on 26 November in Sochi. The reason for the delay, according to the Armenian side, was the sensitivity of the date, coming as it did a year after the signing of the 2020 ceasefire agreement. There was also some controversy surrounding the possible signing of two documents on border demarcation and unblocking regional economic and transport routes.
While those documents were not signed at the meeting, the three leaders did at least issue a joint statement reaffirming their commitment to the 9-point ceasefire agreement, though some observers instead considered that the three-hour meeting turned out to be a non-event. Others more familiar with attempts to resolve the decades-long conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, however, thought otherwise.
In an email briefing, Richard Giragosian, Director of the Yerevan-based Regional Studies Center (RSC), considered it another important step forwards. “The meeting between the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders offered an essential return to diplomacy over force of arms,” he wrote, adding that this was just part of a much longer and complex process.
In the statement signed by all three leaders, there was a commitment to dealing with humanitarian issues, something that Giragosian interpreted as a reference to the remaining Armenian detainees held by Azerbaijan, the unblocking of regional economic and transport links, and some signalling that both Yerevan and Baku were ready to start the process of border delimitation and demarcation.
Such a commission, said Putin, could be formed before the end of 2021. Moreover, he declared to the surprise of many, it would be bilateral rather than trilateral. Russia, by virtue of its Soviet-era maps, would probably still take on a supportive role, but this could also theoretically allow others such as the OSCE and even the EU to assist as well.
“The main purpose of today's meeting is not only to speak about the presence or absence of specific issues, but the main point is that today we can come to concrete or as concrete decisions as possible for achieving stability in South Caucasus,” said the Armenian Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, in his opening remarks. “Peace, stability, and people’s safety is our responsibility.”
Meanwhile, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev also sounded upbeat, speaking of the need to publicly start work on a peace treaty “in order to put an official end to confrontation [and to] recognise each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty and […] to live in the future as neighbours […].”
“The most important thing is that the decisions that we’ve made […] will contribute to a more secure and predictable situation in the South Caucasus,” he added, standing to one side of Putin while Pashinyan stood on the other in the press briefing that followed.
Though no concrete details of the meeting were released, Putin promised that they would be when another meeting of the trilateral working group headed by the Armenian, Azerbaijani, and Russian Deputy Prime Ministers was held the following week. As a sign of how optimistic Putin felt, he even presented two sculptures of an olive branch fashioned out of gold to Aliyev and Pashinyan.
That optimism, however, might have been premature. While the trilateral meeting did take place on 1 December as expected, the discussions between the Armenian, Azerbaijani, and Russian Deputy Prime Ministers was described as ‘tense’ by one media outlet. Moreover, not only did the promised details never surface, but it was announced that further meetings would be necessary.
It is unclear whether this is an embarrassment for Putin, but skeptics have already considered the Sochi meeting to be a direct response to the announcement of an EU-facilitated meeting of the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders on the sidelines of the Eastern Partnership Summit due to be held in Brussels on 15 December.
The proposed EU meeting had been in the works for several weeks before it was actually announced.
Indeed, in mid-October, RFE/RL Europe Editor Rikard Jozwiak had already said that such a meeting was being organised on the sidelines of the Eastern Partnership Summit in Brussels. “Let’s be honest about this,” he said in an interview. “The EU has very little room for manoeuvre […] but what they can do is to offer money, time, and diplomacy."
But while the days since the Sochi meeting have not passed as expected, the situation might also not be as bleak as it seems. On 4 December, 10 Armenian soldiers captured by Azerbaijan in the mid-November border clashes were exchanged for maps detailing the location of landmines in territory now back under Baku’s control.
However, unless the trilateral working group finally announces its results beforehand, all focus will now be on the 15 December meeting and some kind of breakthrough. According to the EU, it is hoped that confidence building measures between the two will be agreed upon, something that recent weeks have shown to be as necessary as ever if not even more so.
