Transnistria is the longest-lasting ongoing protracted conflict in continental Europe. For more than thirty years after the violent events of 1992, this region internationally recognised as part of Moldova has been ruled by de facto authorities in Tiraspol without attracting much international attention.
From the socio-economic point of view, stability in Transnistria has largely been enabled by considerable assistance offered by the Russian Federation through different means, including a scheme known as the “gas subsidy” which relies on Gazprom providing gas to the region effectively free of charge. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, however, may well end up shaking irremediably some of the foundations that gave remarkable stability to the current arrangement. On 31 December 2024, the five-year deal that covers the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine towards Europe is due to end, and, in all likelihood, it won’t be renewed. An abrupt end to the Russia-sponsored gas supply would disrupt the prevalent socio-economic arrangements in Transnistria virtually overnight.
This project, implemented in cooperation with the Agency for Peacebuilding, reports on conflict dynamics and offers context and scenario analyses in order to favour policies able to prevent crises, or at least mitigate their consequences.
ANALISYS Transnistria: when buying time, make sure to use it wisely
Giorgio Comai, Bernardo Venturi | 19/7/2024Russia’s gas subsidy – a key ingredient enabling Transnistria’s political economy – may remain in place for a couple more years, but its existence is based on increasingly shaky grounds. Chișinău is ensuring its own energy security, but long term stability in Moldova requires solid arrangements also for Tiraspol
ANALYSIS Transnistria “under blockade”
Giorgio Comai | 13/6/2024A media analysis of Transnistria’s main news agency and TV station shows just how insistently local media and politicians talk about being “under blockade”. The expression is exceedingly dramatic. But Chișinău should do more to allay immediate and pragmatic concerns of local residents
ANALYSIS Moldova-Transnistria: a window of opportunity for the protracted conflict?
Bernardo Venturi | 29/4/2024The first Moldova Reintegration Forum has been a new occasion to debate some of the issues that for many years have shaped the protracted conflict with Transnistria. In the changing regional context, however, old issues emerge under a different light, opening a window of opportunity for moving forward
CONFLICTS Armed conflict of the Dniester, thirty years later
Giorgio Comai | 7/2/2024A newly-published book explores the circumstances around the violence that accompanied Transnistria’s de facto secession from Moldova. Three decades later, finding new answers to old conundrums is key to preventing ongoing tensions from escalating
ANALYSIS Has Transnistria just entered its last year with Russia’s gas subsidy?
Giorgio Comai | 18/1/2024A large share of Transnistria’s economy, including most of its budget, depends on a structural subsidy it receives from Russia in the form of free gas. As Ukraine has promised to stop all Russian pipelines going through its territory by the end of 2024, how will Transnistria cope?
This project is realized with the support of the Unit for Analysis, Policy Planning, Statistics and Historical Documentation - Directorate General for Public and Cultural Diplomacy of the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, in accordance with Article 23 ‒ bis of the Decree of the President of the Italian Republic 18/1967.
The views expressed are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation.
