Bulgaria and Hungary’s Reluctant Green Transition

While the European Union has made a strong effort to create a recovery plan that incorporates sustainability targets, some member states are falling behind in their duty to implement such reforms

A recent analysis of the progress of the European National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP), led by Openpolis and in collaboration with partners from Slovakia, Greece and Hungary, as part of the European Data Journalism Network, found that Bulgaria and Hungary, in particular, are extremely far behind in reaching their milestones and targets for the green transition, with the former completing only 3% and the latter having completed none at the time of writing. These observations reveal just how far Europe as a continent is from reaching its sustainability goals.

In order to support development on the continent after the pandemic and help fund its member states’ recovery, the European Union in 2021 created the NextGenerationEU plan . At the centre of the project is the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP), which incorporates climate and sustainability targets to ensure the European Union’s recovery plan is inline with its goal to become the first climate-neutral (zero emissions) continent by 2050.

As shown by the EU’s financial allocations, a core aspect of NextGenerationEU involves positioning the continent to hit these targets, as at least 30% of the recovery plan and the EU’s budget are allocated toward the development of green projects and addressing climate change. The EU collectively has earmarked funds to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030, support transitions to clean energy, and enable the development of sustainable transportation.

While the continent collectively shares these general goals, each individual member state has their own recovery plan and the freedom to choose where to invest, although there are certain criteria and specific milestones each country must reach in the process.

However, this lack of progress becomes less surprising when considering the political situation and general opposition to the green transition in both Bulgaria and Hungary.

Bulgaria has experienced compounding years of political issues, where despite holding their sixth election in three years this past June, failed to form a minority government. This political uncertainty, combined with what seems to be a general scepticism for the green transition, has affected the country’s progress in reaching its milestones and receiving recovery funding.

In 2021, the debate in the country surrounding the green transition started to take shape, as Bulgaria at the time was the EU’s most carbon-intensive economy, where about nearly half of the country’s electricity came from coal. Bulgaria, the poorest member state in the Union, after pressure from the European community, attempted to phase coal out while simultaneously reassuring coal workers that their livelihoods would be protected.

Despite this happening three years ago, protests by coal and power plant workers have continued, which, in April 2024, led the Bulgarian parliament to postpone a vote on the Climate Neutrality Roadmap, which if approved would have unlocked 4.4 billion euros in EU funding. In the lead up to the European elections in June 2024, one veteran coal miner and strike organiser said , “the Green Deal is a charade which threatens our well-being and fuels anti-European feelings”. The Bulgarian former Prime Minister also weighed in on Bulgarian’s opinion of the deal, saying how they find “suffering and something invented by the Brussels bureaucracy, which was imposed on them and of which they are the victims” and suggesting that it should be “an opportunity to modernise our production, economies and innovations”. However, amidst both political uncertainty and conflicting domestic opinion regarding Bulgaria’s sustainable transition, the country has failed to make considerable progress.

In Hungary, the attitudes and political situation regarding the green transition are quite similar to that of Bulgaria. Viktor Orban, the prime minister of Hungary, which at the beginning of July took over the six-month Presidency of the Council of the EU, spent years speaking out against climate action. In 2019, after more than a year of European discussions, Orban vetoed the EU’s plans to reduce carbon emissions by 2050. In response to the goal to reduce emissions by 55% by 2030, Orban accused pro-Green Deal politicians of "killing the European middle-class with the 'Fit for 55' legislative package,".

In recent months, the Hungarian leader has reversed this step now “speaking out in favour of renewables and climate action – but often without implementing a matching list of policies.” This change comes as polls showed that increasing numbers of Hungarians think the green transition is important.

Despite this, the Hungarian leader has still been critical of Europe’s approach and strategy. In a recent op-ed in the Financial Times, Orban, like his colleagues in Bulgaria, expressed scepticism for the green transition, writing how it is a chief example of "misguided Brussels decisions that go against the realities of the world economy", and suggested that the EU “has been imposing its own ideologically motivated goals without adequately consulting industry.” While he insists that Europe must be a leader in this transition, he is very critical of the regulations the Union has set in place.

As a result of these concerns from politicians and certain industries, both countries have failed to reach their expected milestones, and therefore have not received some of their earmarked NextGenerationEU funding. However, if the EU truly wants to become emission free by 2050, the governments of all 27 member states must be on board with the vision and plan.